总结一下一个观点，“在10年内，BTC/整个crypto生态在10年内无法替代美元，而且美元会更去中心化 成为大部分交易的入口”，10年后时间跨度太多，各方面的可能性太多了，超过我觉得可以预测的范围。
最重要的一点是 “全球化不可逆”， 逆全球化 只是 全球化大趋势中的小波动。全球化并不是想逆就逆的，全球的核心经济、技术、软硬件 对 任何一个已经加入这个体系的国家而言都抽不开了，少任何一方面都能造成大规模经济停摆。 另一方面全球的权贵已经在财富，家庭人口迁移，利益牵涉上实现了很高的全球化，这些人对政策有相当高的话语权。
美元背后的军事、科技霸权只是美元强势的一个方面，更重要的是美元是一种相对其他货币更去中心的货币。（虽然和其他多节点的链是没法比）
1. 货币的不可能三角 “资本自由进出、固定汇率、独立自主的货币政策”，美元选了/被迫选了 牺牲对汇率的控制。现在除了发达国家外，大部分自己发行的货币还没因为超通胀暴毙的国家，都会牺牲自由兑换。
无论成因是什么，现在美元就是最去中心的货币，而且趋势还在加强，参考3。
2.在1的前提下，绝大部分国家在去中心无实体的crypto/BTC 和 有实际对象的美元 之间还是会选美元的。 国家可以禁止民众去获取和使用crypto，但只要国家官方使用btc来进行国际交易，这就给了一个"BTC是可靠的"的信号。绝大部分国家在这方面都是更倾向独裁垄断的地位。加上之前提到的实质掌握政治话语权的权贵，他们的财富很大部分都依托在美元体系上。这种自我革命的事，不会主动去做的。有成熟的政治贿赂系统的话，还可以长时间 慢慢地去渗透权力结构的内部，但大部分国家没这个条件。
3.现在的趋势更加倾向是 stablecoin 和美元高度绑定，这里面有美国控制的部分 和 去中心化程度很高的部分。 stablecoin在可预见的未来都有很重要的地位，而没啥特殊情况usd体系的stablecoin还是主流。最近的regulation只是想加入分一杯羹。（SEC毕竟是Gary Gensler领导的，他有很重的话语权，不会连这东西杀不死都不知道）
4.crypto的mass adaption是需要时间的。但这个adaption是建立在已经有对广大群众好用易用的软硬件方案之上，这个在几年内连日常消费都替代不了，更不用说投资、理财和信贷等方面了。
Summary of some recent thoughts: "Within 10 years, BTC/ the entire crypto ecosystem cannot replace the US dollar, and the US dollar will become more decentralized and be the entry point for most transactions." Predicting anything over 10 years is too far ahead with too many possibilities in various aspects, exceeding what can be predicted by me.
The most crucial point is that "globalization is irreversible." The reversal of globalization is just a small fluctuation within the overall trend of globalization. Any country that has joined this system cannot separate from the core economy, technology, software, and hardware of the world, and any aspect missing can cause massive economic stagnation. On the other hand, the global elite has achieved a high level of globalization in terms of wealth, family migration, and interests involved, and these people have a considerable say in policies.
The military and technological hegemony behind the US dollar is just one aspect of the strength of the US dollar. More importantly, the US dollar is a more decentralized currency relative to other currencies (although it cannot be compared to a well decentralized blockchain token).
1.The impossible triangle of currency, "Capital mobility, Exchange rate, and independent and autonomous monetary policy." The US dollar chose/was forced to sacrifice control over exchange rates. Now, except for developed countries, most countries that issue their currency and have not collapsed due to hyperinflation, are sacrificing free exchange/Capital mobility. Regardless of the cause, the US dollar is now the most decentralized currency, and the trend is still strengthening, as stated in 3.
2. Under the premise of 1, most countries will still choose the US dollar between decentralized crypto/BTC and the tangible US dollar. Governments can prohibit people from obtaining and using crypto, but as long as the country's officials use BTC for international trade, this gives a signal that "BTC is reliable." Most countries tend to be dictacors in these policies. In addition to the previously mentioned elite who hold significant political discourse power, their wealth is largely based on the US dollar system. They will not voluntarily carry out such self-revolution. If there is a mature political bribery system, it is also possible to slowly penetrate the internal power structure, but most countries do not have this condition.
3.The current trend the US dollar getting more decentralized. Stablecoins will be partially controlled by the US government and partially controlled by stablecoin issuers. Stablecoins have a significant position in the foreseeable future, and USD-based stablecoins are still mainstream in the absence of special circumstances. Recent regulation events are just the government trying gain more power in it.
4. The mass adoption of crypto takes time. And this adoption is based on software and hardware solutions that are already useful and easy to use for the masses, which is not the case any time soon. Nothing is yet to be able to replace the daily payment system, let alone investment, financial management, and credit systems.
#btc 3crypto #usd #decentralization #stablecoin #currency
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