mrecheese 🧀 @mrecheese 🧀 - 8mo
#Texas 275 FXUS64 KHGX 060104 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 804 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 450 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 SE Texas will experience a significant pattern change heading into the weekend as a mid/upper level trough digs across the Great lakes while Beryl continues northwestward into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The mid level ridge over the SE CONUS weakens and shifts eastward, which should bring mild relief from the heat and better rain chances. A weak frontal boundary associated with the aforementioned upper trough has recently crossed through the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex, currently producing a thin line of showers/thunderstorms. This features is expected to slow/stall later this evening, but where exactly it stalls out remains uncertain. The Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area has the best chance of getting these showers/storms, though coverage will still be very isolated, that is if the line can even make it there to begin with. However, the mid level ridge still remains sufficiently strong this afternoon to bring oppressive heat across the region. Therefore, a Heat Advisory remains in effect across all of SE Texas through 7 PM Tonight. On Saturday, shortwave impulses from disturbances further north, along with PVA from Beryl, should provide more robust support for afternoon showers/storms. CAM guidance suggests scattered to numerous thunderstorms activity throughout much of SE Texas, which may provide more widespread relief from the heat. Highs on Saturday will still be in the 90s, though heat indices will range from 102- 109 F. Not quite at the level for a Heat Advisory (or nearly as extensive), though still close. Either way, heat should not be an issue for much longer, as the effects of Beryl will become more prominent heading into Sunday. 03 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 450 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The main forecast concern in the long-term is focused towards the southwestern Gulf of Mexico with the proximity of Tropical Storm Beryl. Beryl is currently located near the Yucatan Peninsula and is moving west-northwest into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. We will continue to monitor its track and intensity as atmospheric conditions remain favorable for this system to move west-northwest into the Lower to Middle TX coast early next week. Synoptically speaking (large-scale view), a sub tropical ridge to our east and an upper-level trough across north-central CONUS are allowing Beryl to keep a west-northwest and then northward track into TX, almost parallel to the coast. In fact, the aforementioned upper-lvl trough will become quasi-stationary before finally moves eastward after mid- week. Vertical (boundary layer) conditions remain favorable once Beryl enters the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. For this reason, the latest National Hurricane Center advisory brings Beryl as category 1 hurricane, just before it makes landfall over the Lower to Middle TX coast early Monday. In terms of hazards and impacts, as of now, deep tropical moisture will keep PWs into the 2.5 to 2.8 inch range across SE TX, mainly Monday and Tuesday. With that being said, increasing rain and storm chances are expected Sunday into Tuesday with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. It is too early to pin point specific rainfall totals. Overall, WPC`s QPF guidance brings 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through the middle of next week. Regardless the final track and intensity of Beryl, conditions are expected to deteriorate along the TX coast Sunday into Tuesday with increasing rain/storm chances (resulting in flooding), significant coastal flooding, elevated winds, seas/swells, high rip currents risk. Again, uncertainty in track and intensity remains high and fluctuations in the track, intensity and impacts will change in the next couple of days. Current Hazards: - A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the TX coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent, TX. - A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the TX coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent, TX. - Coastal Flood Watch is in effect for all Gulf-facing beaches, including the Matagorda Peninsula, Brazoria County beaches, Galveston Island and the Bolivar Peninsula. Remember, a Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the next 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means that there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline generally withing 48 hours. Stay weather prepared, and stay tuned to the latest forecast updates. Wednesday and beyond, enough moisture and warm and humid southerly surface winds will keep rain/storm chances throughout the end of the week. Mostly cloudy skies and increasing rain chances will keep temperatures near to slightly below normal the upcoming week. JM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 658 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR conditions currently across SE TX sites with a few isolated SH/TS mainly across the Piney Woods region (around and NE of UTS). Light VRB winds expected tonight into Sat morning. Winds will become ESE to SE and increase to 5-10 KTS Sat afternoon. Another round of SH/TS can be expected during the day, mainly over areas west of I-45 and locations closer to the waters during the morning and expand east and north into the central and northern counties of the CWA during the afternoon to evening hours. Apart from lightning and some gusty winds, reduced vis/cigs could occur at times. Rain chances will gradually decrease later in the evening and early night hours. Light VRB winds to be expected again Sat night. 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 450 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Surface high pressure centered over north-eastern Gulf will continue to bring light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and low seas through at least late Saturday. Attention then turns to early next week as marine and beach conditions deteriorate with the approaching Tropical Cyclone Beryl. Beryl is currently a Tropical Storm located near the Yucatan Peninsula. It is expected to move west-northwest into the southern TX coast over the next few days, intensifying as a category 1 hurricane Sunday into Monday just before making landfall. Uncertainty in track remains moderate to high, and fluctuations in the intensity as it moves over the Gulf waters are expected. However, confidence in elevated seas/swells, strong winds, coastal flooding, strong rip currents and moderate to heavy rainfall is increasing after Sunday. Mariners are encourage to stay tuned to the latest forecast both from weather.gov and the National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) to get the latest forecast and impacts information across the Upper TX coast. Marine conditions should gradually improve after Tuesday with light to moderate onshore winds and seas. Dangerous beach conditions will still persist with moderate to high risk of rip currents along all Gulf facing beaches through the end of the upcoming week. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 95 76 96 / 20 50 20 20 Houston (IAH) 79 95 79 94 / 20 60 20 40 Galveston (GLS) 81 92 82 89 / 30 40 20 50 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Hurricane Watch for TXZ335-336-436. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. Coastal Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ214-313-337- 338-437>439. Storm Surge Watch for TXZ335-336-436. GM...Hurricane Watch for GMZ330-350-370. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Cotto (24) MARINE...JM
